tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78900036420186025152024-02-08T03:35:34.021+00:00A Room with my ViewsHenzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-60572732506066975462012-03-02T17:02:00.002+00:002012-03-02T17:04:19.454+00:00Cities Fit For Cycling: My MP's Response<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Cycling has been higher up the political agenda than usual recently, thanks, in part, to The Times' <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/public/cyclesafety/">"Cities Fit for Cycling"</a> campaign, and also many others. It has promoted ideas and fostered debate on some key issues, for example: earmarking "£100 million a year towards world-class cycling infrastructure", and that "20mph should become the default speed limit in residential areas where there are no cycle lanes."<br />
<br />
As with all all-encompassing campaigns there are some things which could be improved. For example, it calls for "world-class cycling infrastructure", but avoids the S-word, <a href="http://londonist.com/2012/02/standard-criticises-times-cycling-campaign-similar-to-its-own.php">segregation, which even the Evening Standard managed to include back in 2007</a>.<br />
<br />
I was inspired to <a href="http://www.writetothem.com/">contact my MP</a> (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Teather">Sarah Teather</a>, LibDem, Brent Central) and encourage her to attend a debate of <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/commons/early-day-motions/edm-detail1/?session=2010-12&edmnumber=2689">Early Day Motion 2689</a> on 23rd February. The bill now has 111 signatures, although my MP's is not one of them, <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/business/edms/">parliamentary protocol discourages / disallows signing of EDMs by Government ministers</a>. She is, however, "delighted that the Motion has received so much support."<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Here are some of the key points from her reply (my emphasis, scanned below):<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li>"It is vital that our roads are safe and welcoming for cyclists"</li>
<li>A list of Coalition cycling policies, similar to those laid out in <a href="http://hub.velocentric.com/the-full-response-from-david-cameron-regardin">David Cameron's reply to the campaign</a>.</li>
<li>"In London, the leader of the Liberal Democrat <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/who-runs-london/the-london-assembly/about-london-assembly">London Assembly</a> Group, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Pidgeon">Caroline Pigeon</a>, has argued that <b><i>too many road schemes are based first and foremost on serving the needs of motorists</i></b> and have called on transport engineers to take the safety of cyclists and pedestrians seriously."</li>
<li>Reducing the numbers of gyratories which "are designed to move high volumes of traffic fast."</li>
<li>"Implementing more 20mph speed limits."</li>
<li>She has written to both <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Baker">Norman Baker</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson">Boris Johnson</a> about the campaign.</li>
</ul>This sounds very promising. If "[calling] on transport engineers to take the safety of cyclists and pedestrians seriously" means calling for more, <a href="http://lcc.org.uk/pages/parliament-square">better cycling infrastructure</a>, and making streets easier, not <a href="http://cyclelondoncity.blogspot.com/2011/12/main-pedestrian-crossing-at-blackfriars.html">more difficult</a>, to cross on foot, then the letter has my full support.<br />
<br />
The following is a transcript of two emails I sent to my MP, and her reply (for the public record):<br />
<br />
My first email: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"> [Address Removed]<br />
<br />
Friday 3 February 2012<br />
<br />
Dear Sarah <span class="il">Teather</span>,<br />
<br />
I am writing to urge you to support The Times' "Cities fit for Cycling" campaign. Encouraging active travel is key to The Prime Minister's aim to lead the "greenest Government ever". As Minister with responsibility for Children and Education you are perfectly placed to call for more, safe routes to school.<br />
<br />
Your constituency includes some wonderful areas for cycling, including the beautiful Welsh Harp Reservoir. Sadly Brent is also home to some of London's worst cycling (and walking) facilities. Staples Corner and Neasden Junction are disastrous for cyclists and walkers alike, pushing more and more suburban Londoners to take to their cars [1].<br />
<br />
Outer London's residential streets are perfectly placed to lead the way in the "Cycling Revolution", for example you could discuss with Brent Council following Islington's lead and making most roads 20mph. However, even as cycling in inner London rose in the 30 years to 2001 it fell in the outer London boroughs [2].<br />
<br />
Along with other cycling proponents in Government, including Norman Baker and David Cameron, you could have a real impact on cycle safety. This may translate into other areas such as reducing obesity and making streets safer for children.<br />
<br />
Therefore, please take the time to read The Times' articles and proposals [3], and I hope that you will encourage the Government to act on this key issue.<br />
<br />
Yours sincerely,<br />
<br />
<strike>XXX</strike><br />
<br />
[1]<br />
<a href="http://voleospeed.blogspot.com/2011/10/picking-cherries-and-other-low-hanging.html" target="_blank">http://voleospeed.blogspot.<wbr></wbr>com/2011/10/picking-cherries-<wbr></wbr>and-other-low-hanging.html</a><br />
[2]<br />
<a href="http://voleospeed.blogspot.com/2011/10/cycle-of-decline-in-outer-london.html" target="_blank">http://voleospeed.blogspot.<wbr></wbr>com/2011/10/cycle-of-decline-<wbr></wbr>in-outer-london.html</a><br />
[3] <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/public/cyclesafety/article3306502.ece" target="_blank">http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/<wbr></wbr>public/cyclesafety/<wbr></wbr>article3306502.ece</a></blockquote><br />
My second email:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"> Friday 10 February 2012<br />
<br />
Dear <strike>XXX</strike> [Addressed to Head of Office],<br />
<br />
Thank you for your prompt reply. <br />
<br />
As an addendum to my previous email I would like to urge Ms. <span class="il">Teather</span> to attend the debate on Early Day Motion No. 2689, which is scheduled for 2.30pm - 5.30pm on Thursday 23rd February in Westminster Hall.<br />
<br />
The motion, "The Times’ Cities Fit for Cycling Campaign, is relevant", proposed by Dr Julian Huppert MP (Lib Dem), is something the Government should be fully engaged with.<br />
<br />
Thanks and regards,<br />
<br />
<strike>XXX</strike></blockquote><br />
My MP's reply (scanned and cropped):<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoTbLPL7irED2Jw54zWOgtZfEeM_lcU0-Q-Ih_DzyGOS5OcnutZD8M5Kq7dhayQed_b8sR4Gp5w5kl6n0GaPaT_l58kU3gfOk-sp3tiUpyr2ZkWEcl0hKO9zT7jjBfrXojRXt1QFIub3R6/s1600/Teather_CycleSafe_ed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoTbLPL7irED2Jw54zWOgtZfEeM_lcU0-Q-Ih_DzyGOS5OcnutZD8M5Kq7dhayQed_b8sR4Gp5w5kl6n0GaPaT_l58kU3gfOk-sp3tiUpyr2ZkWEcl0hKO9zT7jjBfrXojRXt1QFIub3R6/s640/Teather_CycleSafe_ed.jpg" width="465" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Open in a new tab to view full size.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr-h_QMuC505e-5jpKP7RCUgz3zRAdUEhpsTuhJPATX8DdIy7SVyqmBDDPKZsCjwCkRyXVKLVN02DbidUCHT19ObgONk6jt8CrPh2joa1KFgls-eN5asjkhUbvRzDDTNW108nVHuwR92dG/s1600/Teather_CycleSafe_ed-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr-h_QMuC505e-5jpKP7RCUgz3zRAdUEhpsTuhJPATX8DdIy7SVyqmBDDPKZsCjwCkRyXVKLVN02DbidUCHT19ObgONk6jt8CrPh2joa1KFgls-eN5asjkhUbvRzDDTNW108nVHuwR92dG/s640/Teather_CycleSafe_ed-1.jpg" width="521" /></a></div><br />
</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-9212908324762876602012-02-12T21:44:00.002+00:002012-02-12T21:48:07.895+00:00S**t Cyclists Actually Say<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">In keeping with the "S**t .... say" meme there's a <a href="http://www.bikeradar.com/news/article/video-sht-cyclists-say-33033/">"S**t Cyclists Say" clip</a>.<br />
<br />
I have to own up to asking "What does this weigh?" quite a lot. (<i>ed.</i> And I don't even own a road bike, <a href="http://bikenoob.com/2010/08/31/n-1/">yet</a>)<br />
<br />
Even sillier are some answers cyclists have actually given to a <a href="http://www.bicycling.com/news/featured-stories/2012-readers-choice-results">Survey by Bicycling Magazine</a>.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKGoH7do16RiVasTcECgHUVdjV0Z8rIopf_yw-1drYHPOMxkRkOTjk2Bfkv2iW8gADegz-PTbVBtAGoheEx1QNNj8LP1EBs1k63N-6W_i4bmj18dFKXf9SBjoduActmZSfXkCfM8RmEm3d/s1600/sexyshavedcyclists.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKGoH7do16RiVasTcECgHUVdjV0Z8rIopf_yw-1drYHPOMxkRkOTjk2Bfkv2iW8gADegz-PTbVBtAGoheEx1QNNj8LP1EBs1k63N-6W_i4bmj18dFKXf9SBjoduActmZSfXkCfM8RmEm3d/s400/sexyshavedcyclists.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Definitely some tough questions (<a href="http://www.bicycling.com/sites/default/files/uploads/bicycling-readers-choice-12.pdf">source, pdf</a>).</td></tr>
</tbody></table><a name='more'></a>With over 5000 respondents there are some wonderful answers:<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li>5% are motivated on difficult climbs by "the thought of [their] significant other getting angry at [their] tardiness."</li>
<ul><li>A further 10% are motivated by <a href="http://radlerbier.tripod.com/">BEER</a>! (A "Beer Bike" would solve their problem)</li>
</ul><li>Raleigh riders (of which I am one) are "most likely to want to ride with Orlando Bloom"</li>
<li>The worst style <i>faux pas</i>, according to female cyclists, are white shorts. <a href="http://www.alivewithlove.com/cyclists.html">Yup, just imagine this in white (NSFW)!</a></li>
<li>58% of female cyclists would <a href="http://www.treehugger.com/bikes/female-cyclists-say-theyd-rather-give-sex-biking.html">rather give up sex than cycling</a>. It's 50/50 for the men.</li>
<li>And women prefer their men with shaved legs (makes you go faster, honest) ;)</li>
<li>And finally, an excuse for skipping work to take a ride: "I got chased by a boar." (<a href="http://bikeyface.com/2011/11/16/winter-beard/">Maybe it was just one of these guys.</a>)</li>
</ul>I'll leave you with this choice tip by Jesus Vega:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"><i>"Don’t forget to bring your front wheel."</i></blockquote><span style="font-size: x-small;">This story was via <a href="http://www.treehugger.com/bikes/female-cyclists-say-theyd-rather-give-sex-biking.html">treehugger</a>, the survey results are <a href="http://www.bicycling.com/sites/default/files/uploads/bicycling-readers-choice-12.pdf">here</a>.</span></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-32721776730214113902012-01-24T22:33:00.003+00:002012-04-23T23:36:43.367+01:00The Social Cycle (image intensive)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Cycling can be a rather solitary activity.<br />
<br />
Being self-propelled means a cyclist can go their own way, sharing an occasional knowing look with fellow pedallers. You could always go cycling with friends, in a club ride, or even take part in "<a href="http://www.itsnotarace.org/">Silly Commuter Racing</a>".<br />
<br />
Sadly the law does not take kindly to cyclists having a chat during a ride.<br />
<br />
The UK Highway Code (rule 66) states:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"><a href="http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/TravelAndTransport/Highwaycode/DG_069837">You should ... never ride more than two abreast, and ride in single file on narrow or busy roads and when riding round bends</a></blockquote>This is <a href="http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/TravelAndTransport/Highwaycode/DG_070236">not a legal requirement</a>, however riding 3 abreast could count against you in court (for example for determining liability following a collision). However, in <a href="http://www.bikexprt.com/bicycle/sidebysid.htm">Nebraska, USA, cyclists must ride single file</a>.<br />
<br />
People in cars have it easy. The metal box cuts out (some) street noise, and with space for 4 or so others, you can conduct a conversation in (relative) comfort.<br />
<br />
And of course roads are designed with cars 3 abreast in mind. Just imagine how many cyclists you could fit across a 3 lane motorway.<br />
<a name='more'></a><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.sir-robert-mcalpine.com/files/project/17955/DSC_4151___Main.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://www.sir-robert-mcalpine.com/files/project/17955/DSC_4151___Main.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cars being sociable on the M74 in Glasgow. From <a href="http://www.sir-robert-mcalpine.com/projects/?id=17955">Sir Robert McAlpine</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.morrisfurniture.co.uk/images/biknhike.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="114" src="http://www.morrisfurniture.co.uk/images/biknhike.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">People being sociable on the M74 in Glasgow. From <a href="http://www.morrisfurniture.co.uk/news.php">Morris Furniture</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/lcc_production_bucket/files/3899/in_content.JPG?1312003447" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/lcc_production_bucket/files/3899/in_content.JPG?1312003447" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Bicycles being sociable on Blackfriars Bridge. From <a href="http://lcc.org.uk/articles/hundreds-of-london-cyclists-turn-out-for-flashride-to-protest-against-blackfriars-urban-motorways">LCC</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>Or you could have a lot more fun and use a Social Bike!<br />
<br />
A side-by-side bicycle (which have a long history):<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhddQQsRow_1ejQF5abfk8lj5qhD9tDL_zUNYk98thair-1lvBGaa_wGYkqeWNlxovsz2BB2q5-58kjlwobETU2lZbK1uVB-aa9uQP-bGzu6JABZX9Tswm-QkKIqEKQIHVlCt2vQmKaWOo/s320/1896+side+by+side+bicycle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhddQQsRow_1ejQF5abfk8lj5qhD9tDL_zUNYk98thair-1lvBGaa_wGYkqeWNlxovsz2BB2q5-58kjlwobETU2lZbK1uVB-aa9uQP-bGzu6JABZX9Tswm-QkKIqEKQIHVlCt2vQmKaWOo/s320/1896+side+by+side+bicycle.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Claims to be<a href="http://www.prices4antiques.com/transportation/bicycles-motorcycles/Bicycle-Fox-Machine-Co-Companion-Side-By-Side-Tandem-Restored-1896-B143857.htm"> from 1896</a>! <a href="http://fowlerville.blogspot.com/2011/05/1896-side-by-side-bicycle.html">Fowlerville Observer</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://blog.modernmechanix.com/mags/qf/c/ModernMechanix/8-1934/lrg_twin_bike.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="229" src="http://blog.modernmechanix.com/mags/qf/c/ModernMechanix/8-1934/lrg_twin_bike.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Introducing the side-by-side bicycle (a little late). <a href="http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2006/06/06/australians-ride-side-by-side-on-bicycle-built-for-two/">Modern Mechanix</a>, August, 1934.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXC51L0y70Oxr4Dj0Sy-h8a2Aw2C9KbpLIFgJKS5xenT9ANHfaVmx5WKKth1rZc2Z8bOb_CMLkkD5ZaMoI4JOe4dGxS4YqTGokjP7P_nwL5-af4kzyXlKyDKgj_RLCyTawo3EAUun9JA3e/s400/Conan+Doyle+on+a+Tandem+Penny-Farthing.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXC51L0y70Oxr4Dj0Sy-h8a2Aw2C9KbpLIFgJKS5xenT9ANHfaVmx5WKKth1rZc2Z8bOb_CMLkkD5ZaMoI4JOe4dGxS4YqTGokjP7P_nwL5-af4kzyXlKyDKgj_RLCyTawo3EAUun9JA3e/s320/Conan+Doyle+on+a+Tandem+Penny-Farthing.jpg" width="238" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Conan_Doyle">Sir Arthur Conan Doyle</a> and his second wife, Jean Elizabeth Leckie, on a side-by-side tricycle circa 1900. From <a href="http://www.natemaas.com/2012/01/conan-doyle.html">Nate's Nonsense</a>, with thanks to the <a href="http://armchairzoologist.blogspot.com/">Armchair Zoologist</a>. Incidentally Conan Doyle could "<a href="http://wheelbike.blogspot.com/2011/04/sir-arthur-conan-doyle-on-benefits-of.html">only speak words of praise for the bicycle</a>".</td></tr>
</tbody></table>You can <a href="http://www.instructables.com/id/Side-by-Side-Bicycle/">even make your own</a>!<br />
<br />
Or how about a <a href="http://www.beerbike.co.uk/">Beer-Bike</a>? Sadly banned in my former home, <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,784910,00.html">Düsseldorf</a>.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://cdn4.spiegel.de/images/image-138647-galleryV9-dxln.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="228" src="http://cdn4.spiegel.de/images/image-138647-galleryV9-dxln.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A Beer-Bike. <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/bild-721758-138647.html">Spiegel Online</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Or the rather more sober alternative, a conference bike, at least one of which has gone "<a href="http://www.cobiuk.com/">End-to-End</a>". (Edit: a.k.a. LEJOG)<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.saliko.de/gfx/img/tram_gelb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://www.saliko.de/gfx/img/tram_gelb.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A conference bike, or CoBi. Made by <a href="http://www.saliko.de/en/saliko/index.html">Velo Saliko</a> in Germany.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>There are lots more social bikes out there, I have tried (in vain) to persuade my better half to join me in the footsteps of WillsandKate on a, slightly less sociable, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tandem_bicycle">bog standard tandem</a>.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/287355032.jpg?Expires=1327444576&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIYVGSUJFNRFZBBTA&Signature=QlQZKRCyhJ8oFfAUQ-Hd7B3fJn912uOhwGHDWqKObuy3jCeIzAIC2QIiGz-e9YfzGKapXz9eHoYrox449tXlUaDbvrW7-X4urP31H0Gfwj5CUqqkpbv-EwtM1ZnzatfWy3QzBPOlt4ShSn74c8A4sURnav4WDG35mW468nKSM34_" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/287355032.jpg?Expires=1327444576&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIYVGSUJFNRFZBBTA&Signature=QlQZKRCyhJ8oFfAUQ-Hd7B3fJn912uOhwGHDWqKObuy3jCeIzAIC2QIiGz-e9YfzGKapXz9eHoYrox449tXlUaDbvrW7-X4urP31H0Gfwj5CUqqkpbv-EwtM1ZnzatfWy3QzBPOlt4ShSn74c8A4sURnav4WDG35mW468nKSM34_" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Royal Couple's tandem hire bike. Courtesy of <a href="https://twitpic.com/4r30k8">Boris Johnson</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
I may have to settle for a 2-person tricycle. <br />
<br />
Although I'm not sure whether we should "ride more than two abreast" or not.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">If you're looking for sociology's "Social Cycle Theory" try <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory">Wikipedia</a>. And if you're looking for the SoBi bike sharing scheme try <a href="http://socialbicycles.com/">socialbicycles.com</a>.</span></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-83846468609117783372012-01-17T10:29:00.006+00:002012-01-17T14:34:48.097+00:00TfL still don't "get it"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Update: <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2012/01/tfl-has-just-sent-following-travel.html?showComment=1326805820734#c6362006812261758113">TfL also sent a (different) email to drivers</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Update 2: <a href="http://road.cc/content/news/50636-tfl-cycle-safety-emails-risk-confusion-and-reinforcing-us-vs-them-attitudes">TfL actually sent 3 different emails, confusing</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">TfL has just sent the following "</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="hP" id=":8f">Travel informatio<wbr></wbr>n reminder"</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"> email:</span></div><table align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr><td style="padding: 12px 0px 25px 0px;"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 552px;"><tbody>
<tr><td align="left" style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: 12px; padding-right: 15px;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"> Dear XXXXX, <br />
<br />
I am writing to both cyclists and drivers to remind them to take care on London’s roads. <br />
<br />
Cyclists are reminded to: </span><br />
<ul style="padding-top: 5px;"><li>Be aware of blind spots all around large vehicles. It’s often safer to hang back</li>
<li>Make eye contact with drivers to make sure they have seen you</li>
<li>Not ride through red traffic lights. It’s dangerous and you can be fined £30</li>
<li>Allow space between you and parked vehicles. Doors may be opened suddenly</li>
</ul>Cycle training courses are available in most London boroughs. <br />
For more information, please visit <a href="http://info.tfl.gov.uk/re?l=9xib2fI2us8blxI7" name="134eb1725b93e4b3_body_main_link_moreinfo" style="color: #0019a8; text-decoration: underline;" target="_blank">tfl.gov.uk/cyclesafety</a></td> <td align="right" style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" valign="top"><span style="padding-bottom: 10px;"><a href="http://info.tfl.gov.uk/re?l=9xib2fI2us8blxI8" name="134eb1725b93e4b3_body_side_img_moreinfo" target="_blank"><img alt="" border="0" hspace="0" src="http://info.tfl.gov.uk/imgproxy/img/613095811/side_cyclesafety.jpg" style="display: block;" vspace="0" /></a></span> </td> </tr>
</tbody></table></td> </tr>
<tr> <td style="padding-bottom: 3px;"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 552px;"><tbody>
<tr> <td align="left" style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Yours sincerely, </td> </tr>
</tbody></table></td> </tr>
<tr> <td><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 552px;"><tbody>
<tr> <td align="left" style="font-family: Verdana,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: 12px; padding-bottom: 30px;"><img alt="" src="http://info.tfl.gov.uk/imgproxy/img/612947494/ben_plowden.jpg" /><br />
Ben Plowden<br />
Director, Surface Planning </td></tr>
</tbody></table></td></tr>
</tbody></table>This is missing the point. <b>Cyclists can do <i>all</i> these things, be <a href="http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-24004110-widow-fears-superhighway-victim-will-end-up-as-a-statistic.do">"very road aware"</a>, but it is <i>not enough</i> to keep them safe. </b><br />
It is not solely up to cyclists, or just cyclists and drivers, TfL have responsibility as well. For providing <a href="https://aseasyasridingabike.wordpress.com/2011/10/29/the-death-of-brian-dorling/">inadequate and dangerous provision for cyclists and pedestrians</a>.<br />
<br />
The above email also advises "drivers ... to take care on London's roads," but all the emphasis is on cyclists' responsibilities.<br />
<br />
TfL could easily add:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">Drivers are reminded to:</blockquote><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Give cyclists <a href="https://croydoncyclist.wordpress.com/tag/passing/">adequate room</a>.</li>
<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Door_zone">Look before opening their doors</a>.</li>
<li>Not violate <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jul/29/cycling-advance-stop-line">Advanced Stop Zones</a>.</li>
</ul>But instead they chose to focus on everything that cyclists do wrong. Perpetuating myths such as <a href="http://ibikelondon.blogspot.com/2010/04/myth-of-red-light-jumping-cyclist.html">"all cyclists jump red lights,"</a> and creating more anti-cyclist sentiment rather than aiming for <a href="http://www.roadpeace.org/">safer roads for everyone</a>.<br />
<br />
Edit: More info discussing <a href="http://kingscrossenvironment.com/2012/01/16/tflcorporatemanslaughter/">TfL's responsibilities, and its failure to meet them</a>.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-6694954965393944042012-01-14T23:59:00.000+00:002012-01-14T23:59:40.847+00:00Libertarians in Islington<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Islington, home to the "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chattering_classes">Chattering Classes</a>" and (possible) <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-16455070">bans on chuggers</a>. Is being dragged into 2012 by a new kind of political force. One <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul">Ron Paul</a> supporter is going all out:<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZE8Ojbs80RKLrTHBrkjWCnDSrXuXn8Zv_1cgJdHXvlUvTug771VjOEy39Cuk5oBen-e_3DgAjrYdyUaQEF9CAp4aqIhw6oQL8HH_w8u7VyEkl-6BXm1Epj4DeZgrlQwqwBnpsET0mDZFg/s1600/Image0277_modified.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZE8Ojbs80RKLrTHBrkjWCnDSrXuXn8Zv_1cgJdHXvlUvTug771VjOEy39Cuk5oBen-e_3DgAjrYdyUaQEF9CAp4aqIhw6oQL8HH_w8u7VyEkl-6BXm1Epj4DeZgrlQwqwBnpsET0mDZFg/s400/Image0277_modified.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Do you know what this car is?<br />
It might struggle with rural British roads (<a href="http://www.rapha.cc/the-rolling-english-road">rambling round the shire</a>).</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Not that it will make any difference. Paul is, especially from a British perspective, <a href="https://www.economist.com/node/21542199">a nutter</a>, and the moderate, if mundane, Mitt Romney is <a href="https://www.economist.com/node/21542767">being hailed as the victor</a> only a couple of into the Republican Primaries.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-46363989068203767152011-12-15T17:00:00.001+00:002011-12-15T17:00:08.893+00:00Newt's on top<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">On the 3rd January, 2012 Republicans in Iowa will have <a href="http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/">the first vote</a> in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012">2012 USA Presidential Elections</a>. Whether you care or not, this matters: The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States">POTUS</a> is <a href="http://www.forbes.com/powerful-people/">the most powerful person in the World</a>.<br />
<br />
There have been some rather sudden changes of fortune. Remember <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9bvreW08X0">Michele Bachmann</a>? <a href="http://youtu.be/7GSmDsAET7I?t=1m33s">Rick Perry</a>? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW_nDFKAmCo">Herman Cain</a>? Well, they've <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16078329">been and gone</a>, the new "<a href="http://anyonebutmitt.com/">Anyone but Mitt</a>" candidate is <a href="http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/newt-gingrich">Newt Gingrich</a>. According to an <a href="http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/13/9423771-nbcwsj-poll-romney-struggles-with-primary-voters-gingrich-with-general-electorate">NBC/WSJ poll</a> 40% of primary voters would plump for Newt. 17% more than <a href="http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/mitt-romney">Mitt Romney</a>, in second place.<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm8O94BKgLRNKAmSQnGthrnqbuQ-gMUqtMJOdiHtd1izZf1z6HcHigXJgsmjXwjOnAg1F63DXgTeVGzInFK11PkRz9xHXPNbCq3ib5DoZpKyT6kaf5O9ecHFuzGDvsFYa_bbNjLbMZvhkT/s1600/Newts.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm8O94BKgLRNKAmSQnGthrnqbuQ-gMUqtMJOdiHtd1izZf1z6HcHigXJgsmjXwjOnAg1F63DXgTeVGzInFK11PkRz9xHXPNbCq3ib5DoZpKyT6kaf5O9ecHFuzGDvsFYa_bbNjLbMZvhkT/s400/Newts.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Newt Gingrich (left) and a Great Crested Newt (right). ©<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TriturusCristatusFirstYearMaleFirstYear.JPG">Piet Spaans</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Newt_Gingrich_by_Gage_Skidmore_3.jpg">Gage Skidmore</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>The Republican Primaries have become a battle of "<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8PGxm9cMZU">I'm more conservative than you</a>". This may be appealing to Republicans, but it isn't to the general electorate, who prefer the more moderate Mr Romney, although Barack Obama would still win the popular vote by ~2%.<br />
<br />
Newt would make a terrible President, it has been said that: Newt Gingrich wakes up every morning with 5 big ideas; 4 are dreadful, and the other is unworkable*. If Obama found Congress <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/16/obama-and-congress-learn_n_158586.html">obstructionist</a> a President Gingrich <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/12/why-president-gingrich-would-fail-at-every-reform-he-attempted/249661/">would probably fare worse</a>.<br />
<br />
You can explore the most recent polls on <a href="http://www.economist.com/content/republican-candidates-president">The Economist</a>, or <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16078329">The Beeb</a>.<br />
<br />
Other cute animals are running for US President, why not <a href="http://www.hamsterforpresident.com/">Vote Hamster</a>?<br />
<br />
If you live in London you can also "Vote Newt". <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2010/mar/20/ken-livingstone-reptiles-newts">Ken Livingstone (Lab) keeps them</a>. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2012">Other mayoral candidates are available</a>.<br />
<br />
* I think the saying come from <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/default.stm">Today</a>, I was probably half asleep and have misremembered, but the vague sense was the same.</div></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-7698296184677102892011-12-14T18:44:00.001+00:002011-12-14T18:49:29.931+00:00Cybernetics and Ethics<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Cyborgs have appeared across science fiction: <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070700/">The Six Million Dollar Man</a>; <a href="http://www.startrek.com/database_article/borg">The Borg</a>; and <a href="http://www.starwars.com/databank/character/darthvader/">Darth Vader</a> but to name a few. They vary from the oddly comic <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/doctorwho/classic/gallery/cybermen/">Cybermen</a> to the crime-fighting hero <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093870/">Robocop</a>¹.</div><br />
In the last decade cybernetic organisms, once confined to the imaginings of authors, have begun to appear across the world. At 4.00PM on Monday, 24th August, 1998 Professor Kevin Warwick underwent surgery to become the <a href="http://www.kevinwarwick.com/Cyborg1.htm">World’s first</a> <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2002/mar/22/research.highereducation1">cyborg</a>.<br />
<br />
Prof Warwick’s implant, <a href="http://www.kevinwarwick.com/the_transponder.htm">a small glass capsule full of electronics or "transponder"</a>, allowed the buildings in his department at the University of Reading to recognise his presence, <a href="http://www.kevinwarwick.com/implant_technology.htm">opening doors and turning on lights automatically</a>.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.kevinwarwick.com/transponder.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="276" src="http://www.kevinwarwick.com/transponder.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Transponder (<a href="http://www.kevinwarwick.com/the_transponder.htm">Ref</a>.)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Kevin Warwick did not stop there;<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
In 2002 an <a href="http://www.kevinwarwick.com/the_neural_interface.htm">electrode</a> was fired into a nerve in Prof Warwick’s left arm. The implant <a href="http://www.kevinwarwick.com/Cyborg2.htm">allowed nerve impulses to be measured and stimulation to be applied</a> directly to the nerve, this meant Prof Warwick could control a robotic hand, and his wife could “feel” stimulation sent from him to a similar implant in her nervous system [1,2]. The experiment was <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2078-nerve-implant-experiment-a-gimmick.html">lambasted at the time as “a gimmick”</a>, especially related to Kevin Warwick’s claim that the research could help paraplegics regain limb movement.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cd/Utah_array_pat5215088.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cd/Utah_array_pat5215088.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Design of an electrode similar to that used by Prof. Warwick. [3]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Is this an “evil, mad scientist” turning themselves into Superman? Self experimentation is not uncommon among researchers has lead to some of the World’s greatest scientific advancements, and <a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Barry_Marshall">won one scientist a Nobel Prize</a>. But Kevin Warwick has mentioned, in an interview with the Guardian, that he had been <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2001/oct/04/engineering.academicexperts">“into” the possibility of cyborgs since childhood</a>, should we be indulging this childish whim?<br />
<br />
In this case the only people’s safety at stake were Prof Warwick, and his wife [4]*; however the series of experiments were very costly, without the efficiencies of mass production and the man-hours required for pioneering surgery. The time of the two top neurosurgeons involved could have been well spent elsewhere, treating patients rather than fulfilling Kevin Warwick’s personal whim.<br />
<br />
Despite this we must consider the avenues of treatment this research has opened up. <a href="http://news.discovery.com/tech/bionic-arm-moved-by-thought.html">Thought control over prosthetics has been successful</a>. Just imagine how much more intuitive and accurate that process could be made <a href="http://www.unews.utah.edu/p/?r=042106-1">if implanted electrodes were used</a>. Professor Warwick’s work may end up improving the quality of life of countless disabled humans and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10404251">animals</a>. Two hours in a surgery and a relatively minute sum are certainly a small price to pay for improving lives.<br />
<br />
In early 2010 research similar to Prof Warwick’s led to the development of prosthetic limbs which <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8677132.stm">have allowed a 21 year old Austrian to drive</a>. The patient, a Mr Kandlbauer, was very happy with his limb and described it feeling like “a part of my body.” Sadly, in the October following his surgery, Mr Kandlbauer <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11607930">died in a fatal car crash</a>. Although it is unknown whether this is related to his prosthetic there is always the ethical issue that this construes a breaking of Issac Asimov’s <a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Three_Laws_of_Robotics">First Law of Robotics</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">"A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm." </blockquote>These laws are not built into robots in the real world, and, as we are all aware, technology can break down when we least expect it. If it is found that Mr Kandlbauer’s death was caused by a failure of his prosthetic, this may have significant implications for the future of prosthetics and the apportioning of blame when technology is involved in an accident.<br />
<br />
Finally, here's a short advertorial for Deus Ex: Human Revolution by <a href="http://eyeborgproject.com/about/">Rob Spence, aka. "The Eyeborg"</a>.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="233" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/TW78wbN-WuU?rel=0" width="400"></iframe></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: x-small;">¹Robocop is also oddly comic. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">*I should note that no lasting damage to Dr Warwick’s nervous function was observed during or after the experiments.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">[1] M. Gasson, B. Hutt, I. Goodhew, P. Kyberd, and K. Warwick, “<a href="http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/15231/">Invasive neural prosthesis for neural signal detection and nerve stimulation</a>,” <i>International journal of adaptive control and signal processing</i>, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 365-375, 2004.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">[2] K. Warwick M. Gasson, B. Hutt, I. Goodhew, P. Kyberd, B. Andrews, P. Teddy, and A. Shad, “<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14568806">The Application of Implant Technology for Cybernetic Systems</a>,” <i>Arch Neurol</i>, vol. 60, no. 10, pp. 1369-1373, 2003.</span><br />
<span class="Z3988" style="font-size: x-small;" title="url_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzotero.org%3A2&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=The%20Application%20of%20Implant%20Technology%20for%20Cybernetic%20Systems&rft.jtitle=Arch%20Neurol&rft.volume=60&rft.issue=10&rft.aufirst=Kevin&rft.aulast=Warwick&rft.au=Kevin%20Warwick&rft.au=Mark%20Gasson&rft.au=Benjamin%20Hutt&rft.au=Iain%20Goodhew&rft.au=Peter%20Kyberd&rft.au=Brian%20Andrews&rft.au=Peter%20Teddy&rft.au=Amjad%20Shad&rft.date=2003&rft.pages=1369-1373&rft.spage=1369&rft.epage=1373"> </span></div><span style="font-size: x-small;">[3] By Richard A. Normann (US Patent #5,215,088) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">[4] J.H. Schulman, “<a href="http://www.springerlink.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/content/qr51p7277x618436/">Brain Control and Sensing of Artificial Limbs</a>,” in</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Implantable Neural Prostheses 1: Devices and Applications</i>, 1st ed., vol. 1, 2 vols., New York, USA: Springer, 2009, pp. 275-291. <a href="http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=aeLcwRpRSg4C&dq=Brain+Control+and+Sensing+of+Artificial+Limbs&source=gbs_navlinks_s">On Google Books</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">I wrote this post about a year ago, but submitted a very similar version as coursework. To avoid self-plagiarisation I refrained from publishing at the time.</span></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-25006670926409146262011-12-05T09:00:00.011+00:002011-12-05T09:00:00.729+00:00Lies, Damn Lies and Government Statistics: The Data<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">I promised to provide the sources and data for a <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2011/11/lies-damn-lies-and-government.html">previous post</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://assets.dft.gov.uk/statistics/tables/tra0101.xls">The Government Data</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www2.dft.gov.uk/pgr/economics/ntm/forecasts2009/xls/forecast.xls">The Government Predictions</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnUX0_uNlfKNdDhqbzh2QnRlRDM4dWNVWWwzSkNCekE">My Calculations and Graphs</a><br />
<br />
The data is Billion vehicle miles per year.<br />
<br />
At the time I used it the predictions were version 1.1 from May 2010.<br />
<br />
The data and official projections have been mentioned in articles by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/features/is-this-the-end-of-the-car-2286616.html">The Indy</a>, <a href="http://www.bettertransport.org.uk/blogs/roads/211111-RAC-traffic-growth">The Campaign for Better Transport</a>, <a href="http://pedestrianliberation.org/2011/11/21/lobbying-ahead-continued/">Pedestrian Liberation</a> and <a href="http://quickrelease.tv/?p=1679">Carlton Reid</a> among others.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-90300093005738858522011-11-28T21:50:00.001+00:002011-12-16T15:14:05.920+00:00Lies, Damn Lies and Government Statistics (Image Intensive)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8EM5HB8-XsAflxHU2MAjz80j90CgcrI5AtLW0aqzvUAbFPnt0VcevXVeTFyjfV63cejO7LypexX0C8qJb4QxLrfHuqTSXxkAjWC8rC_qdf_vlW2OrW2BPSmGbVV_wGDRr1RlQlwOxlVmX/s1600/Plain_Data.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8EM5HB8-XsAflxHU2MAjz80j90CgcrI5AtLW0aqzvUAbFPnt0VcevXVeTFyjfV63cejO7LypexX0C8qJb4QxLrfHuqTSXxkAjWC8rC_qdf_vlW2OrW2BPSmGbVV_wGDRr1RlQlwOxlVmX/s400/Plain_Data.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Government Data Set 1949-2010</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>Above I have presented a UK Government Data Set which has been widely circulated. The graph plots annual figures, not cumulative data. But I am going to break a major rule of data presentation, and not label my axes (the x-axis is year). What the data set is does not matter, and I do not want to prejudice your opinion*.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Edit: <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2011/12/lies-damn-lies-and-government.html">You can now see the data if you wish</a>.<br />
<br />
Next we have the official Government predictions. This revision is from May 2010, therefore allows for data inclusive of 2009, but not 2010. <br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkIP4Ucs3wGmt_9RaHqOy8e6y0l5QmQ-gBSqzuVMICGnIRpynBa2MXfm4bxjNYqKObqSuRH01im8lZg2yIHL1pz9SsBK4oTK0-oKTCVMeG0wRgH1XQolH9j6avC_0bIrw01E3N3bxRhA0m/s1600/Government_Predictions.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkIP4Ucs3wGmt_9RaHqOy8e6y0l5QmQ-gBSqzuVMICGnIRpynBa2MXfm4bxjNYqKObqSuRH01im8lZg2yIHL1pz9SsBK4oTK0-oKTCVMeG0wRgH1XQolH9j6avC_0bIrw01E3N3bxRhA0m/s400/Government_Predictions.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Government Predictions to 2035 (Orange)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Notice anything odd?<br />
<br />
No, in this form neither do I, the data appears to follow a pretty linear correlation. So continuing this trend may well be justified. However there are a few blips, around 1974, the early 1990's and, most recently, since 2007.<br />
<br />
It is this recent "blip" which I am going to focus on.<br />
<br />
Is it actually a "blip"?<br />
<br />
For a rough-and-ready estimate I am going to use what is known as a "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average">Moving Average</a>". This smooths data, enabling long term trends to become more apparent.<br />
<br />
The graph below shows a 5-year "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average">Simple Moving Average</a>" (SMA) of the data set.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSFz07aom_aNk8XOLvToYorHTG4pVhEAPlSiBZpeBOL5VRoZLhIccKEnn5kd6UaLHdyoTCSa-QeG6QAusAj876XZimJc0aT7rK7Fny5e2weXq7ZbhCfACz6ZgVkye_VdCPUwQGTegSqVc/s1600/5yrSMA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSFz07aom_aNk8XOLvToYorHTG4pVhEAPlSiBZpeBOL5VRoZLhIccKEnn5kd6UaLHdyoTCSa-QeG6QAusAj876XZimJc0aT7rK7Fny5e2weXq7ZbhCfACz6ZgVkye_VdCPUwQGTegSqVc/s400/5yrSMA.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">5-year Simple Moving Average</td></tr>
</tbody></table>It is difficult to see in the graph; last year is <b>the only year on record that the 5-year SMA has fallen</b>.<br />
<br />
A more robust approach is to use the "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Moving_median">Simple Moving Median</a>" (SMM). The next graph is a 5-year SMM.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKZIAOTDed9TA0iX8lKlHzk1ZpdP1rI35BBXjCUFW-0WVT9kn2vLmmPB-tiMOEaOJ3WF34hIt-2bGrAiPnrTNZs601UXkfKrUP5CNtBoDt_fUD2XyAiSfBuRcXHnCxflzpoSg9e5LLWgwp/s1600/5yrSMM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKZIAOTDed9TA0iX8lKlHzk1ZpdP1rI35BBXjCUFW-0WVT9kn2vLmmPB-tiMOEaOJ3WF34hIt-2bGrAiPnrTNZs601UXkfKrUP5CNtBoDt_fUD2XyAiSfBuRcXHnCxflzpoSg9e5LLWgwp/s400/5yrSMM.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">5-year Simple Moving Median</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>In this graph the last last 3 years are <b>the longest period on record that the 5-year SMM has remained constant</b> (ie. not increased). The SMM has never fallen over the data set.<br />
<br />
We can apply even more smoothing by using 10-year SMA and SMMs (the next 2 graphs).<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXmreuw_C-o2IW-mjvm6bdxH85WzRHWG3iv_KtXxH4vvXWyqZTqKsfly_kslE1YQTDKwEC8xAuaHmfVp_wgjrt7GsCkoqhOo2kq8KKRIo2An6GlOiV4SyjMTgt92AgC0z-S16_EXHoZ4SK/s1600/10yrSMA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXmreuw_C-o2IW-mjvm6bdxH85WzRHWG3iv_KtXxH4vvXWyqZTqKsfly_kslE1YQTDKwEC8xAuaHmfVp_wgjrt7GsCkoqhOo2kq8KKRIo2An6GlOiV4SyjMTgt92AgC0z-S16_EXHoZ4SK/s320/10yrSMA.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">10-year Simple Moving Average</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd-N9OQ7x9s2jJ4SpHHHKiR26UvIzEJXV5Eyx_QhN1Bja_HW5hHewlShWViSq0HUwZjJpIAOYow0eamRW42fjKbyGcBQCdVAHhcdBFQTnnnYVjH4nQHobZqvD9JDy4wMl_vLDfHpARt6Bb/s1600/10yrSMM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd-N9OQ7x9s2jJ4SpHHHKiR26UvIzEJXV5Eyx_QhN1Bja_HW5hHewlShWViSq0HUwZjJpIAOYow0eamRW42fjKbyGcBQCdVAHhcdBFQTnnnYVjH4nQHobZqvD9JDy4wMl_vLDfHpARt6Bb/s320/10yrSMM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">10-year Simple Moving Median</td></tr>
</tbody></table>The last year is <b>the only year on record that the 10-year SMM has not increased</b> (it remained constant).<br />
<br />
However, looking at our 10-year SMA we have a pretty straight line, we could almost draw a prediction which looks pretty like the Government's.<br />
<br />
There is another way to get an idea of where the data is going, examining change year-on-year (without using complex models or looking for non-linear trends).<br />
<br />
I am going to use % change year-on-year (graph below).<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPF37I-coj7W-TsXLGdDWJwZQhsFqaLVBynmAZyuITYL1s_rCBC7Mwsr5owGCKnYuhmaKsGbGJrqfuLl8lxrxcQGwH9qs6Al7pavJTk8FWNCVYGM-N4lSFnUJPvLCo581D1fiGiLe9AjQj/s1600/PC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPF37I-coj7W-TsXLGdDWJwZQhsFqaLVBynmAZyuITYL1s_rCBC7Mwsr5owGCKnYuhmaKsGbGJrqfuLl8lxrxcQGwH9qs6Al7pavJTk8FWNCVYGM-N4lSFnUJPvLCo581D1fiGiLe9AjQj/s400/PC.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">% Change, Year-on-Year</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Here the trend appears to be an inverse correlation (% change falls as time increases).<br />
<br />
To speed things up a bit I am going to use a single smoothed graph, the most smoothed, most robust method, ie. a 10-year SMM.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWM5Kz8xXNXxVULzLpM_YE52qaEHZTWYfr9HeVUW_KtfG-STga0L8-DlYZ9O25_Ez1roCuNF-A6FVGhlICi3kLFgYKSI6p80aJUggUStmWCMvCysyAVdpOKXwFw0V7dKN0KFRzgfjpR84o/s1600/PC10SMM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWM5Kz8xXNXxVULzLpM_YE52qaEHZTWYfr9HeVUW_KtfG-STga0L8-DlYZ9O25_Ez1roCuNF-A6FVGhlICi3kLFgYKSI6p80aJUggUStmWCMvCysyAVdpOKXwFw0V7dKN0KFRzgfjpR84o/s400/PC10SMM.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">% Change, 10-year Simple Moving Median</td></tr>
</tbody></table><b>Now for the important part:</b><br />
<br />
To be able to predict a linear trend in the data we would expect a constant % change. However, we have a % change which tends to fall with time.<br />
<br />
Therefore a more sensible prediction is not a linear increase, it is at the very least a trend towards a plateau, if not a peak followed by a decline.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately the Government is working with their own prediction, I predict that this will lead to non-optimal policy.<br />
<br />
Although, of course, <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2010/12/drugs-policy-without-science.html">politicians ignore all statistics and advice that they disagree with</a>.<br />
<br />
* I will tell you what the data is later, and provide my sources and calculations should you wish to do some data-hacking yourself.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-79700667846036796312011-11-23T18:35:00.000+00:002011-11-23T18:35:28.873+00:00Moving on from Ubuntu<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Instead of using Microsoft Windows or Mac OSX as my <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_system">operating system</a> I use <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux">Linux</a>. More specifically I use <a href="http://www.ubuntu.com/">Ubuntu</a>. Even more specifically I used Ubuntu 11.04 <i>Natty Narwhal</i>.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCxU3EhdTeLmpivE2jo6cLh_w3aD-8posnZBBsJ107a0CBH2ZVBsYr_nDLPiz4M_N5TKvwdPk4dAYoX76MlHF0-8ClUdPaWr-ucmiDFQX2jOY_bkcAlLZlyRSIpokqc_xFhKoLCHFLQBwm/s1600/Ubuntu11_04.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCxU3EhdTeLmpivE2jo6cLh_w3aD-8posnZBBsJ107a0CBH2ZVBsYr_nDLPiz4M_N5TKvwdPk4dAYoX76MlHF0-8ClUdPaWr-ucmiDFQX2jOY_bkcAlLZlyRSIpokqc_xFhKoLCHFLQBwm/s400/Ubuntu11_04.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ubuntu <i>Natty Narwhal</i> with GNOME Classic</td></tr>
</tbody></table>This is now out of date, Ubuntu has moved on to version 11.10 <i>Oneiric Ocelot</i>. I have messed around with Ubuntu for years, somewhere I have a copy of<i> <a href="http://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_154877002"></span>Dapper Drake</a><span id="goog_154877003"></span> </i>(from 2006). Back then Ubuntu <a href="http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=article&item=481">looked different</a>. I first installed Ubuntu in the era of<i> <a href="http://lifehacker.com/371194/first-look-at-ubuntu-804-hardy-heron-beta">Hardy Heron</a></i>, there were changes, but they were mostly behind the scenes: installation was easier, sound & wireless worked out of the box.<br />
<br />
6 versions later there was a big change: <a href="http://unity.ubuntu.com/about/">Unity</a>. This did not just change things behind the scenes. <a href="http://www.zdnet.com/photos/gallery-ubuntu-1104-alpha-3/6200557">The look changed</a> too. It became less customisable at the same time, taking up more screen real estate.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
I have worked around this by using the <a href="http://www.webupd8.org/2011/08/installing-using-classic-gnome-desktop.html">GNOME Classic</a> desktop (see above). This is similar to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GNOME#Release_history">GNOME 2.x</a>.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately there are other issues with Ubuntu, in particular it is relatively power and resource hungry. Linux is typically fast and lightweight, <a href="http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=article&item=linux_windows_part1&num=1">Ubuntu is bucking this trend</a>.<br />
<br />
Therefore I am looking for a faster, lighter Linux distribution with a simple desktop.<br />
<br />
I plan to test:<br />
<a href="http://ctkarch.org/">CTKArch</a> - Based on <a href="https://www.archlinux.org/">Arch Linux</a>, but ready-to-use.<br />
<a href="http://archbang.org/">ArchBang</a> - As above, but considered more stable.<br />
<a href="http://lubuntu.net/">Lubuntu</a> - Ubuntu with <a href="http://lxde.org/">LDXE</a>.<br />
<a href="http://www.xubuntu.org/">Xubuntu</a> - Ubuntu with <a href="http://www.xfce.org/">Xfce</a>.<br />
<a href="http://crunchbanglinux.org/wiki/about">#! (Crunchbang)</a> - Debian/Ubuntu with Xfce and <a href="http://openbox.org/">Openbox</a>.<br />
But I am open to suggestions. <br />
<br />
I will be playing with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Live_CD">LiveCDs</a> on an older Laptop (with a 1.3GHz Celeron processor from the Pentium III era). This is a quick and easy way to test hardware compatibility and get a feeling for the user interface. <br />
<br />
For now I will keep my main machine with Ubuntu. Lubuntu and Xubuntu will require <a href="http://www.howtogeek.com/howto/ubuntu/install-xfce-xubuntu-on-ubuntu-linux/">only a small alteration</a>, and getting a <a href="https://help.ubuntu.com/community/Openbox">#!-like system</a> is rather simple, for anything else a fresh install is required. Best to leave that for the holidays*.<br />
<br />
Despite all this I encourage you to try Ubuntu, try it as a <a href="https://help.ubuntu.com/community/LiveCD">LiveCD</a> and leave your computer completely unchanged!<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Other lightweight distributions of note:</span> <br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://puppylinux.org/main/Overview%20and%20Getting%20Started.htm">Puppy Linux</a> - Very basic.</span> <br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="http://www.bodhilinux.com/about.php">Bohdi</a> - Ubuntu with Enlightenment.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Any others? </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">*Knowing my luck with completely messing things up and having to start again. </span></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-27025757463510540012011-11-16T14:04:00.001+00:002011-11-16T14:06:26.535+00:00Freedom to Pollute<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Last week <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2011/11/driver-privilege-checklist.html">I argued</a> that motorists are unusually privileged by being:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">"...free to <a href="http://www.londonair.org.uk/LondonAir/guide/BusyRoad.aspx">pollute the environment</a> and <a href="http://www.londonair.org.uk/LondonAir/guide/LongTermEffects.aspx">thereby kill</a> blamelessly."</blockquote>I attempted to put a cost on deaths related to vehicle pollution, and came to the figure of £14.5bn per annum. For simplicity I made some hasty approximations, figures from 2001 and ignored the costs of healthcare.<br />
<br />
Since then the <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/eacom">Environmental Audit Committee</a> has <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/environmental-audit-committee/news/air-quality-a-follow-up-report/">published a report</a> stating that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15693627">poor health related to pollution costs £8.5bn-£20bn per year</a>.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
The report states that the Government is complicit in these deaths "by trying to water down <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/quality/standards.htm">EU air quality rules</a>". In addition the Government is dodging the responsibility by putting the onus on cash-strapped Local Authorities to lower pollution.<br />
<br />
One particular local administration could do a lot to reduce these figures. <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/sep/07/london-worst-european-cities-air-pollution">London is the most polluted city in the UK</a> but, with control of Transport for London, the Mayor can do a lot to help. Unfortunately at the moment 4,000 people die on London from pollution alone, the same number as during "<a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Great_Smog">Great Smog of London</a>" in 1952.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5VkvaWiknaTQ4cSfoGBCR6WrGF1EZOxV6D0uzS1vtZtUQDedEn4rTKQu_IUyl97SqByDVv-ZEaqWSO3G6r8Nbbd83bUfB8Bd4MrvjLDY3QeTMwI-vDzLsF5KKIh4tVAHQG00U0Ufplxfz/s1600/SootFreeCities.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5VkvaWiknaTQ4cSfoGBCR6WrGF1EZOxV6D0uzS1vtZtUQDedEn4rTKQu_IUyl97SqByDVv-ZEaqWSO3G6r8Nbbd83bUfB8Bd4MrvjLDY3QeTMwI-vDzLsF5KKIh4tVAHQG00U0Ufplxfz/s400/SootFreeCities.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A review of London's pollution reduction measures. <br />
From <a href="http://sootfreecities.eu/city/london">sootfreecities.eu</a> (colour enhanced for readability).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>The Mayor even has an "<a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/airquality">Air Quality Strategy</a>", but an independent review this year found that London <a href="http://sootfreecities.eu/city/london">only fares well on "Use of Economic Incentives"</a>, and even this was scaled back by Mayor Boris Johnson following his election.<br />
<br />
In fact 3 measures have been scaled back or postponed: the <a href="http://www.tfl.gov.uk/roadusers/congestioncharging/17094.aspx">Congestion Charge Zone</a>, <a href="http://www.tfl.gov.uk/roadusers/lez/17678.aspx">Low Emission Zone</a> and <a href="http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/2019.aspx">Plans for Hybrid Busses</a>. Remaining measures are either non-existent or "have not been implemented [meaningfully] so far."<br />
<br />
London has the opportunity to do great things, but risks <a href="http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-24009623-westminster-in-war-on-drivers.do">being held back</a> by the privileged special interest group that is motorists.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-24308125600408821552011-11-10T21:14:00.002+00:002011-11-16T14:17:00.104+00:00The Driver Privilege Checklist<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">On Saturday readers of <a href="http://ibikelondon.blogspot.com/2011/11/were-all-set-tour-of-tfls-10-most.html">ibikelondon</a> & <a href="http://cyclelondoncity.blogspot.com/2011/10/12-november-tour-of-transport-for.html">Cyclists in the City</a>, cycle campaigners such as LCC and <a href="http://ibikelondon.blogspot.com/2011/11/invitation-to-boris-johnson-elephant.html">possibly even Boris Johnson</a> will tour <a href="http://lcc.org.uk/articles/london-cyclists-prepare-for-tour-of-citys-10-worst-junctions-and-one-way-systems">the 10 worst junctions for cyclists in London</a>. Meanwhile Boris sticks to his guns insisting that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-15664952">roads aren't the problem</a> (hint: they are, in part).<br />
<br />
These issues are not confined to London. <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span><span style="font-size: small;">Kristin Mueller-Heaslip<span style="font-family: inherit;">, a blogger from Toronto, has identified another problem: the privileged position of drivers.</span></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<a href="https://scintillator.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/the-driver-privilege-checklist/">The Driver Privilege Checklist</a> follows in the shoes of <a href="http://www.amptoons.com/blog/the-male-privilege-checklist/">The Male Privilege Checklist</a> and <a href="http://www.amptoons.com/blog/files/mcintosh.html">The White Privilege Checklist</a>. I do not agree fully with equating the issues pedestrians and cyclists face compared to those faces by Women and non-Whites; however, the argument for pointing out the advantages afforded to drivers is arguably stronger than those for pointing out either gender or racial privilege: because, you cannot choose your race or gender*. You can choose your mode of transport**.<br />
<br />
Boris is perpetuating this privilege by insisting on "<a href="http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/11351.aspx">Smoothing Traffic Flow</a>", in doing so <a href="https://cycleoffutility.wordpress.com/2011/06/10/tfls-%E2%80%98smooth-traffic-flow%E2%80%99-ignores-pedestrians-cyclists-and-even-buses/">ignoring pedestrians, cyclists and users of public transport</a>. Transport for London (TfL) goes as far as <a href="http://ibikelondon.blogspot.com/2011/06/boris-give-us-streets-for-people.html">ignoring pedestrians and cyclists in the traffic flow figures</a>.<br />
<br />
This enables TfL to fulfil Driver Privilege 7:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">"Large areas of the city, suburb, or rural area I live in are built and laid out with driving in mind to the exclusion of other forms of transportation, and may be totally inaccessible to non-drivers."</blockquote>A point well made by the 10 junctions which the tourers will visit on Saturday.<br />
<br />
There is another Privilege which has been missed from the list and from the comments <a href="http://www.theurbancountry.com/2011/11/driver-privilege-checklist.html">here</a> and <a href="https://scintillator.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/the-driver-privilege-checklist/">here</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">Drivers are free to <a href="http://www.londonair.org.uk/LondonAir/guide/BusyRoad.aspx">pollute the environment</a> and <a href="http://www.londonair.org.uk/LondonAir/guide/LongTermEffects.aspx">thereby kill</a> blamelessly.</blockquote>The equivalent of <a href="http://www.londonair.org.uk/LondonAir/guide/LongTermEffects.aspx">29,000 lives were lost to pollution in 2008</a> is dire. This adds to the <a href="http://www2.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/accidents/casualtiesgbar/rrcgb2008.html">over 2,500 people killed</a> in collisions on the roads that year***.<br />
<br />
Drivers try to perpetuate their privilege by ignoring these factors. For example the <a href="http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/reports/2008/08/the-burden-of-green-taxes.html">Tax Payers Alliance</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq"> "justified ignoring the cost of road traffic collisions and fatalities because the measures taken to reduce collisions, such as “driving tests, speed limits, speed cameras and... speed bumps... impose significant costs on drivers”, as though the cost of travelling within the speed limit equated to the cost of being hit (and possibly killed) by a driver."</blockquote>Quote from <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmselect/cmtran/103/103.pdf">written evidence to the Transport Committee</a> (.pdf, page Ev146, footnote 25) from <a href="http://www.bettertransport.org.uk/">The Campaign for Better Transport</a>. <br />
<br />
Specific taxes on road users totaled £30.9bn in the tax year 2007-2008 (over 80% of this was fuel duty). In the same time period £8.8bn was spent on roads in the UK. Pro-motorist lobby groups use these values to argue that drivers are being charged over the odds (e.g. the AA giving evidence to the Transport Committee, pg. 13). <br />
<br />
In fact they are being subsidised massively (Privilege 2). They just ignore the externalities.<br />
<br />
Let's take the casualties into account. The <a href="http://www.hse.gov.uk/risk/theory/r2p2.htm">HSE valued a death at £1m in 2001</a>, I will use this figure.<br />
<br />
Deaths on the roads add at least £2bn (2,000 deaths) to cost to society of driving. Pollution related deaths raise this yet again, <a href="http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/air-pollution/causes">according to DEFRA</a>, road transportation is the primary source of 6/9 identified pollutants. Therefore, I will assume 50% of pollution related equivalent deaths are due to road transportation. This is 14,500 more deaths, or £14.5bn. This brings the cost of driving to £25.3bn. <br />
<br />
Adding in other costs such as non-fatal collisions, loss of rural landscapes, congestion and policing hikes this yet again. The Campaign for Better Transport places the full cost of these externalities at up to £95bn. This means that almost 70% of the cost of driving comes out of general taxation, a massive subsidy.<br />
<br />
Boris needs to accept that drivers have <a href="https://www.rac.co.uk/report-on-motoring/report-one/cost-of-motoring/">never had it so good</a>, and do something to help others less privileged.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The author of The Checklist has <a href="https://scintillator.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/the-drivers-privilege-checklist-the-response/">followed up on some the criticisms and explained the rationale for the list</a>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">I have written <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2011/11/freedom-to-pollute.html">a follow-up to this post</a>. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">* Excepting gender-realignment etc., and it can be argued that you are in fact the same gender, just with an altered body.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">** In London driving is an active choice, considering the provision of public transport, excepting disability.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">*** Neither of these figures are entirely due to motorists, however I expect that a significant proportion of the first, and the vast majority of the second are directly due to drivers.</span></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-30724586262156872202011-11-09T15:07:00.002+00:002011-11-09T18:19:13.645+00:00Italy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Italy is a strange case. As the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15429057">BBC reports</a> it has low levels of national debt (though high government debt) and tends to balance its budget sheet before interest payments are taken into account.<br />
<br />
These interest payments are the problem. As I have been writing this post the following has happened to yields on <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND">Italian 10 year bonds</a>:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw2SWjULIDs1QaPt5N3Cy3oewijBwaGpOk4plTJVlp2oNkrnozwB5Y7htF05FY9y_kg2GGU6dRhF-xE5xBl_E2fwNt9PRcWpV9kyWLoUjCjmmTo9uhau2crudwbX8KVZcQU30icAXd6wF4/s1600/Italian10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw2SWjULIDs1QaPt5N3Cy3oewijBwaGpOk4plTJVlp2oNkrnozwB5Y7htF05FY9y_kg2GGU6dRhF-xE5xBl_E2fwNt9PRcWpV9kyWLoUjCjmmTo9uhau2crudwbX8KVZcQU30icAXd6wF4/s320/Italian10.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">9th November 2011, 14:52:36 GMT</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXS0m3xDTge9zrz2vumcxc6uY_8g1qJv7jr3QMeAa351hCO-qST4Ike3jyTMs4Tn0yTlIssnRCkOtk5JwtNOdJtj4x2G50OrmnQT5q-W-lHZVEFcT1PhVIYTBNO_vuobQBaDTObsi5zpEi/s1600/Italy10-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="80" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXS0m3xDTge9zrz2vumcxc6uY_8g1qJv7jr3QMeAa351hCO-qST4Ike3jyTMs4Tn0yTlIssnRCkOtk5JwtNOdJtj4x2G50OrmnQT5q-W-lHZVEFcT1PhVIYTBNO_vuobQBaDTObsi5zpEi/s320/Italy10-2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">9th November 2011, 14:55:42 GMT</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCpAxohFvyrxCB7u1NxIPELkgj6GWwBHq6gckuBAxf5_IeQI1M-cbUe51E4VwTKWn65INK5V7EN6Rkv665dipNigJzfjxZLcy6LQKzFF4QfzNl6uhpP20zU4eWprlORirV4AauRmp-e0HU/s1600/Italy10-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="79" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCpAxohFvyrxCB7u1NxIPELkgj6GWwBHq6gckuBAxf5_IeQI1M-cbUe51E4VwTKWn65INK5V7EN6Rkv665dipNigJzfjxZLcy6LQKzFF4QfzNl6uhpP20zU4eWprlORirV4AauRmp-e0HU/s320/Italy10-3.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">9th November 2011, 14:57:32 GMT</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb5EtEZx9X9vOdXrjMcJUDlOOaBtWSJKikD_sAokqH0xs8mjkgDJ1SaiReHF0_McMhHeA8apeL1eeYcHQ5-aupMGSnn9OAzygF28NO-nuQV6jB8_-RMf7k5N7u84oIW3jh_AcpWVjor4TN/s1600/Italy10-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="81" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb5EtEZx9X9vOdXrjMcJUDlOOaBtWSJKikD_sAokqH0xs8mjkgDJ1SaiReHF0_McMhHeA8apeL1eeYcHQ5-aupMGSnn9OAzygF28NO-nuQV6jB8_-RMf7k5N7u84oIW3jh_AcpWVjor4TN/s320/Italy10-4.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">9th November 2011, 15:05:52 GMT</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/video/79770060/">7% is considered dangerous.</a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">At least Berlusconi is going,<a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Silvio_Berlusconi#The_Economist"> The Economist said he should</a> go as far back as 2001. To be frank his stranglehold over Italy's media and government strikes as rather dictatorial. Silver-linings eh?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">ed. Added link to 7% video. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">ed. N.B. The small number below the % change is the important value, however if this keeps getting hiked at 8% day-on-day (or even the 10% it hit at one point) things will worsen very quickly. The value hit a high of 7.48 at around 7:00ET (12:00 GMT) giving an absolute change of 0.69 on the opening price, or ~10.2% increase.</div></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-15729838183959346512011-10-20T17:00:00.000+01:002011-10-20T17:00:01.938+01:00Writer's Block<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Thanks, in part, to <a href="http://bengoldacre.posterous.com/all-time-favourite-abstract-so-far-via-ginger">a new post by Ben Goldacre</a> my "writer's block" has been cured.<br />
<br />
Below is the first and only page of <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/ppmc/articles/PMC1311997/">a paper</a> by Dennis Upper from 1974:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/ppmc/articles/PMC1311997/bin/jaba00061-0143.tif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/ppmc/articles/PMC1311997/bin/jaba00061-0143.tif" width="218" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The unsuccessful self-treatment of a case of “writer's block”</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
According to PubMed Central this paper has been cited only once, in 2007, in <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2078566/">another seminal paper</a> by a collaboration of researchers from around the World.<br />
<br />
I encourage you to take the time to read both papers in full. </div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-77930342083851463642011-08-31T19:16:00.000+01:002011-08-31T19:16:39.742+01:00Is this big enough for you?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Is The Economist becoming radicalised? Or was J.F. just stating the obvious yesterday when, <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/08/race-and-conservatives">wondering why conservative Americans <i>"lament the loss of the America they grew up in,"</i></a> they tagged conservatism<span style="font-size: x-small;">ǂ</span> and racism as currently inseparable<br />
<br />
I tend to agree with the sentiments in the above article. Conservatives can readily be viewed as a group who are <i>"loss[ing] of their own social privilege"</i> and trying to claw it back.<br />
<br />
This idea ties in very nicely with <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/08/progress-and-privilege">a post today, by W.W.,</a> and shows just how this idea of social privilege is perpetuating World problems.<br />
<br />
In summary W.W. is replying to an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-elusive-big-idea.html">an article by the USC's Neal Gabler</a> (seemingly the sociologists' everyman) which claims that: <i>"Big ideas are almost passé."</i> <br />
<br />
In a wonderful rebuff W.W. quotes <a href="http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.25.3.83">an article by NYU economist Michael Clemens</a> which argues that <i>"barriers to emigration place one of the fattest of all wedges between humankind’s current welfare and its potential welfare." </i><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
W.W. takes this further, saying <i>"policies that restrict free human movement and cooperation create a stupendous amount of preventable poverty and suffering."</i><br />
<br />
W.W. almost presents a manifesto for <a href="http://www.opensource.org/">the Open-Source movement</a> <i>"breaking big problems into smaller problems and tackling them in a socially distributed way by means of a reliable, shared method of inquiry would tend to suggest that that the declining "size" of the average idea is correlated with increasing accuracy in distinguishing the true ideas from the false ones."</i><br />
<br />
Or to put it more simply: Many hands make light work.<br />
<br />
The Open-Source movement sinks Mr. Gabler's claim that <i>"thought-provoking ideas that can’t instantly be monetized are of so little intrinsic value that fewer people are generating them and fewer outlets are disseminating them."</i> <a href="https://www.linux.com/">The Linux community</a> is a case-in-point, there are almost 25,000 accounts on linux.com alone, all contributing small parts to a big idea, of massive value, but is <a href="http://www.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/why-is-it-free">not "instantly monetized."</a> (A more impressive example; there are almost 1.5 million accounts on the Ubuntu forum.) <br />
<br />
Mr. Gabler then complains that recent Big Ideas come from <i>"scientists and empiricists rather than generalists in the humanities,"</i> and are therefore <i>"crowded out [of the main stream media]."</i> Surely this is a good thing. Scientists know <a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Scientific_method">how to test their ideas</a>. And they <a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Academic_journal">tell the World how they developed and tested these ideas</a> (although <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/29/academic-publishers-murdoch-socialist">publishers can get in the way</a>, all the more reason for <a href="http://www.doaj.org/">open standards</a>).<br />
<br />
This brings me back to emigration. Because people like Mr. Gabler are ignoring the importance of scientists they are not just being crowded out of the media, they are also <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/sep/24/science-research-funding-spending-cuts">being crowded out of the work-place</a>. In fact Dame Jocelyn Bell Burnellᶦᶦ and Prof. Keith Campbell* have said that science graduates <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/aug/23/top-scientists-graduates-work-abroad">should emigrate in order to find work in their discipline</a>. Science graduates working in something they have been trained to do are likely to be more productive, generating both: a) more ideas; and b) more solutions to poverty and suffering. Mr. Gabler highlights one of a myriad of ways that we are <i><a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2010/10/bang-for-your-buck.html">"shooting ourselves in the foot."</a></i><br />
<br />
Greater freedom of movement, and greater appreciation of the sciences, may go a long way to building a better world.<br />
<br />
I think I'll just emigrate (again).ˠ <br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">ǂ I use the term conservative in the "<a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Small-c_conservative">small c</a>" sense, ie. those resistant to change. Rather than Conservatives, some of whom are currently enacting <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/jan/19/nhs-health-reforms-unveiled">radical</a> <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-11483582">change</a> in the UK. (Or at least, radical within the typical framework of small incremental changes which usually prevail in UK legislation)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">* Who created Dolly the Sheep. Two Big Ideas there: cloning and animal research.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">ᶦᶦ Who helped discover pulsars. Big Ideas: Time, the Universe & Everything.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">ˠ I have a doctorate to finish first, it may be a while.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The Economist's articles may not work for you. If so they are cached as follows: <a href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:JEGL6RqcxQ0J:www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/08/race-and-conservatives">J.F.</a> & <a href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:0SgCObUpUjMJ:www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/08/progress-and-privilege">W.W.</a>. </span></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-50820852451013518382011-08-21T15:47:00.000+01:002011-08-21T15:47:55.899+01:00Unsung Heroes<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">The BBC is running a short series on scientists at the moment. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b012xnsh">More Tribes of Science</a> follows <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00lxvlf">The Tribes of Science</a>, looking at the variety of scientists hidden behind the <a href="https://archosaurmusings.wordpress.com/2011/05/23/the-framing-of-scientists/">labcoats and coloured liquids</a>.<br />
<br />
Among others the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0132p7l">Scientists of the Diamond Light Source</a>, an <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2010/09/rage-rage-against-dying-of-light.html">interest of mine</a>, take the spotlight for one episode. I encourage you to listen to the series.<br />
<br />
The past week's episode featured <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b013851z/The_Tribes_of_Science_More_Tribes_of_Science_The_Statisticians/">The Statisticians</a>.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Statisticians are the unsung heroes of medical science. <a href="http://www.badscience.net/about-dr-ben-goldacre/">Dr. Ben Goldacre</a> claims that good statistical meta-analyses (eg. Cochrane Reviews) can save "the lives of more people than you will ever meet", in <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Bad-Science-Ben-Goldacre/dp/000728487X/?tag=bs0b-21">this book</a>. The WHO <a href="https://www.who.int/topics/statistics/en/">cares a lot about stats</a> and reckons that <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627468/">stats save lives</a>.<br />
<br />
Statisticians deserve recognition for the work they do solving complex problems from <a href="http://www2.le.ac.uk/offices/press/press-releases/2011/january/analysing-the-data-you-havent-got">publication bias</a> to <a href="http://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_691481737"></span>subject drop-out<span id="goog_691481738"></span></a>.<br />
<br />
I will leave you with a clip from the BBC's <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00wgq0l">The Joy of Stats</a>. With thanks to <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/bioephemera/2010/12/the_joy_of_statistics_not_your.php">Bioephemera</a>.</div><div style="text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="283" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/jbkSRLYSojo" width="450"></iframe></div></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-45641997922918930072011-06-19T17:44:00.003+01:002011-06-19T17:48:18.107+01:00Ubuntu Tinkerings 1: Zotero, NTFS and missing devices.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Recently, following a <a href="http://community.bt.com/t5/BB-Speed-Connection-Issues/BT-HomeHub-firmware-upgrade-broken-network-connectivity-Ubuntu/td-p/176473">hiccup</a> with my Internet connection, I decided to completely reformat my laptop and start again<a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=7890003642018602515&postID=4564199792291893007&from=pencil#foot">*</a>.<br />
<br />
I use a 3 partition system: An ext3 (now ext4) primary partition containing Ubuntu; an NTFS primary partition containing Windows 7; and an extended partition containing my swap partition and an NTFS data store.<br />
<br />
Following the reinstall I encountered a couple of problems setting up Ubuntu.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>Zotero and NTFS partitions</b><br />
<br />
I use <a href="http://www.zotero.org/">zotero</a> (alongside <a href="http://www.bibtex.org/">BibTeX</a>) for bibliography management. Zotero saves a reference database locally, in my case in the data partition. After changing zotero's settings to point it at the database I had restored from backup it promtly crashed, and refused to open.<br />
<br />
Thankfully the solution was straightforward. An error of omission on my part. I had not set up Ubuntu to both read and <i>write</i> NTFS partitions. This is easily achieved using <a href="http://flomertens.free.fr/ntfs-config/">ntfs-config</a>, which you can install and run using the following terminal commands:<br />
<blockquote><div style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">sudo apt-get install ntfs-config hal</div><div style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;"><br />
</div><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">gksu ntfs-config </span></blockquote>N.B. Not installing <a href="https://launchpad.net/ubuntu/+source/hal">hal</a> may result in this error "ntfs-config [errno 2] - try installing hal". Hopefully <a href="https://launchpad.net/ubuntu/+source/udev">udev</a> will soon remove this requirement.<br />
<br />
By ticking both boxes (see below) and clicking close the problems should be solved.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibAPcGfE5UgT2Z60F6VzJYUyHreLI6iRsAFf6zbY_YTr5mTgys9Sy9N_HdUWThaHmn0OymkvGX-tuXvP-HW8sIyyYbawQl8vGpMDCbIa2PIRwbXTQNW7uJQKgehVDgF3Sx27pHnKM4EbPP/s1600/NTFSconfig.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibAPcGfE5UgT2Z60F6VzJYUyHreLI6iRsAFf6zbY_YTr5mTgys9Sy9N_HdUWThaHmn0OymkvGX-tuXvP-HW8sIyyYbawQl8vGpMDCbIa2PIRwbXTQNW7uJQKgehVDgF3Sx27pHnKM4EbPP/s320/NTFSconfig.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The ntfs-config dialogue box</td></tr>
</tbody></table><span style="font-family: inherit;">It all now works!</span><br />
<br />
<b>Missing devices and fstab</b><br />
<br />
The second issue was more cosmetic.<br />
<br />
During boot, Ubuntu would complain that both <span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">/dev/sdb2/ </span>and <span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">/dev/sbd1/ </span>were missing, requiring me to key "S" to skip and continue booting. After hunting for a solution I realised that this originated from running <a href="http://pysdm.sourceforge.net/">pysdm</a> while both a USB drive and an external hard drive were connected.<br />
<br />
In order to solve this issue you need to be sure that the partitions or drives mentioned during boot are <i>not present</i> (eg. not on an internal HD). If they are there is a chance you may prevent access to drive you wish to mount at boot.<br />
<br />
Make a note of the device name(s) (eg. /dev/sdb2/) you will need these in the next step.<br />
<br />
You may wish to backup first by running:<br />
<blockquote><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">sudo cp /etc/fstab /etc/fstab.bak</span></blockquote><span style="font-family: inherit;">To fix the problem I ran:</span><br />
<blockquote style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">sudo gedit /etc/fstab</blockquote><span style="font-family: inherit;">This loads the <a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Fstab">file systems table</a> in a text editor.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Comment out (add # at the begining of) each of the following 2 lines:</span><br />
<blockquote style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">/dev/sdb2 /media/sdb2 ... 0 0</blockquote><blockquote style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;">/dev/sdb1 /media/sdb1 ... 0 0</blockquote><span style="font-family: inherit;">The lines should look something like this:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br />
<div style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;"></div><blockquote style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;"># /dev/sdb2 /media/sdb2 ... 0 0 </blockquote><blockquote style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;"># /dev/sdb1 /media/sdb1 ... 0 0</blockquote>Next time you startup the "missing device" error messages should not occur.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="" name="foot">*</a> At the time I had not realised that the problem was with the router.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">P.S. This is a record of my tinkerings, follow at your own risk. I make no claim to know what I'm doing.</span></div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-39618715533067973862011-06-02T16:57:00.002+01:002011-06-02T16:58:31.634+01:00Preyed Upon<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">The BBC has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13624265">recently reported</a> how a Mac owner recovered his laptop by using <a href="http://hiddenapp.com/">Hidden</a>. Hidden, however, costs $15 per year (just over £9), and can cost up to $400 for a more comprehensive service.<br />
<br />
What the Beeb fails to mention is that there is a program that does this for<b> free</b>, on most operating systems (including android mobile phones).<br />
<br />
This program is called <a href="http://preyproject.com/">Prey</a>.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Even better, Prey is <a href="http://www.opensource.org/">open source</a>, providing another layer of protection by allowing anyone to look at its code and check it does only what it says it does.<br />
<br />
Of course neither of these services will secure your laptop's return if the thief reformats your hard drive, or gives up trying to break your password (especially if you have a BIOS password enabled, though even these can be worked around). In this case your best bet is to have a note of the laptop serial number and use a service like <a href="http://www.smartwater.com/Home.aspx">SmartWater</a>.<br />
<br />
I should also <a href="http://www.shrp.me/docs/dont_use_prey.php">make you aware of (possibly legitimate) concerns</a> about Prey. It may be regularly sending the users API key (somewhat like a password) in an unencrypted format.<br />
<br />
Because I'm on the subject of technology security I will also take the chance to plug <a href="https://www.torproject.org/">Tor</a>. Tor allows you to surf the web anonymously and can be incorporated into the Firefox browser using a "<a href="https://www.torproject.org/torbutton/index.html.en">Tor Button</a>".<br />
<br />
And finally; <a href="http://www.eff.org/https-everywhere">HTTPS Everywhere</a> automatically choses secure connections to a number of websites where possible, especially useful if you regularly use a laptop in an insecure location (eg. a cafe's wireless hot-spot).</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-35584129812874490992011-04-28T07:00:00.058+01:002011-04-28T07:00:00.150+01:00AV Facts<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Earlier this month I attended the <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/public-policy/events/AV_debate">UCL AV Debate</a>. Blogs about the debate are available from the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2011/apr/12/av-debate-jibes-eloquent-confusion?dm_t=0,0,0,0,0">Grauniad</a> and the organising <a href="http://constitution-unit.com/2011/04/12/is-the-alternative-vote-worth-voting-for/">UCL Constitution Unit</a>; I will let you read these for yourself.<br />
<br />
More importantly, 1 week from today you will be going out to vote (hopefully). If you are reading this you've probably decided whether to vote <a href="http://www.yestofairervotes.org/content/">Yes</a>, or <a href="http://www.no2av.org/">No</a>.<br />
<br />
But if you want more info I will provide the executive summary of a brief by <a href="http://www.reading.ac.uk/spirs/about/staff/a-renwick.aspx">Dr. Alan Renwick</a> and the <a href="http://www.psa.ac.uk/">Political Studies Association</a>. Dr. Renwick was not the most eloquent speaker at the debate, but, like all good academics, he had brought his reference list, and proceeded to explain why both campaigns are lying to the electorate. The following summary contains most of his points:<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<blockquote><i>We face a very important choice in the referendum on our electoral system on 5th May. But many of the claims being made by both sides are either false or exaggerated. We need a debate that is grounded in solid evidence. This paper provides that grounding.</i> </blockquote><blockquote><i><b>The basics of AV</b></i> </blockquote><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><blockquote class=""><i>A move to the Alternative Vote (AV) would not be a radical change from the current system of First Past the Post (FPTP). AV is not a proportional system.</i> <i><br />
</i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class=""><i>Rather, AV is majoritarian: candidates win by securing a majority of the votes in their constituency. Under FPTP, only a relative majority is required; under AV, the goal is that winning candidates should secure an absolute majority.</i> <i><br />
</i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class=""><i>AV allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. If no one wins more than 50 per cent of first preferences, second and sometimes lower preferences are taken into account.</i> <i><br />
</i></blockquote></li>
</ul><blockquote><i><b>AV’s known effects</b></i> </blockquote><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><blockquote class=""><i>AV would increase voter choice – between but not within political parties. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class=""><i>AV would reduce but not end tactical voting. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class=""><i>AV would uphold the principle of “one person, one vote”. Every voter would still be treated equally; each vote would count only once in deciding who is elected in each constituency.</i> <i><br />
</i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class=""><i>AV would give weight to second and lower preferences as well as first preferences. The merits of this move can be debated.</i> <i><br />
</i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class=""><i>AV is not a proportional system.</i> <i><br />
</i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class=""><i>AV would not eliminate safe seats, though it will probably reduce their number.</i> <i><br />
</i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class=""><i>AV would not cost much to implement.</i> <i><br />
</i></blockquote></li>
</ul><blockquote><i><b>AV’s likely effects</b></i> </blockquote><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>AV would probably not change turnout at elections. Nor is it likely to change significantly the number of spoilt ballots. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>AV is unlikely to change the structure of the party system fundamentally. But it is likely to increase the Lib Dems’ seat share somewhat, at the expense of the other main parties. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>AV would probably make coalition governments slightly more frequent (but changes in how people vote mean coalitions are already becoming more likely under FPTP). </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>AV would probably sometimes exaggerate landslides. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>Minor parties under AV would probably win more votes, but not more seats. AV would be likely to increase the bargaining power of some minor parties, but not of extremists such as the BNP. It did not help Australia’s One Nation party. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>AV would be unlikely to increase the number of women or ethnic minority MPs. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>AV would be unlikely significantly to change the standards of MPs’ behaviour or the relationship between MPs and voters. It might make some MPs focus more on constituency work – which might or might not be desirable. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>AV would probably reduce the tribalism of political battle only at the margins. </i></blockquote></li>
<li><blockquote class="" style="text-align: left;"><i>A “yes” vote would probably make further electoral system change later on more likely.</i></blockquote></li>
</ul><br />
Text from the: '<a href="http://www.psa.ac.uk/PSAPubs/TheAlternativeVoteBriefingPaper.pdf"><u>Media Briefing Paper on the Alternative Vote'</u></a>, Political Studies Association, March 2011.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-51353382494065646772011-04-27T12:13:00.002+01:002011-04-27T12:15:13.022+01:00Driven to Distraction<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">On 1st December 2003 a law came into effect in the UK making the <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2003/2695/regulation/2/made?view=plain">use of a hand-held mobile phone illegal while driving</a>. The law covers all communication equipment other than "two-way radio", and most uses of such equipment including video calls, internet access and text messages.<br />
<br />
At the time the law allowed police to issue <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3251828.stm">£30 fines</a>, this <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6399407.stm">rose to £60 in 2007</a>.<br />
<br />
Despite this <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6399407.stm">20% of drivers admit to having texted while driving</a>, despite <a href="http://road.cc/34776">texting being perceived as the most dangerous distraction while driving</a>. The true number is probably much higher; would you readily admit to committing a driving offence?<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Texting while driving is incredibly dangerous. <a href="http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-04/hfae-gms040511.php">Research by George Mason University</a> and the <a href="http://www.fabbs.org/news/news-archive/abc-news-highlights-human-factors-research/">Federation of Associations in Behavioral & Brain Sciences</a> carried out at the USA Science and Engineering Festival last October demonstrated to children the difficulties of driving while texting. </div><br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,47,0" height="412" id="flashObj" width="486"><param name="movie" value="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="flashVars" value="videoId=806891522001&playerID=180211731001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAGuN0bcE~,rS1wzGXkRNnKZBuQ4FRjFM7e28yVdmek&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" /><param name="base" value="http://admin.brightcove.com" /><param name="seamlesstabbing" value="false" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="swLiveConnect" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=806891522001&playerID=180211731001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAGuN0bcE~,rS1wzGXkRNnKZBuQ4FRjFM7e28yVdmek&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="486" height="412" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" swLiveConnect="true" allowScriptAccess="always" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object></div></div><br />
It makes me wonder why any sane adult would consider texting while driving. Even using a hands-free mobile is a dangerous activity as shown by <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1188107/">a</a> <a href="http://mysite.verizon.net/horrey/papers/Horrey_HF2006meta.pdf">number</a> <a href="http://www.psych.utah.edu/AppliedCognitionLab/DrivingAssessment2003.pdf">of</a> <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9017937">studies</a>. Even <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1157465/Hands-free-mobile-phones-dangerous-drink-driving.html">the Daily Fail reported research</a> which shows that reaction times among drivers on a hands-free set are 30% slower than those over the legal drink-drive limit.<br />
<br />
It is <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3015610.stm">the conversation</a>, rather than having one hand occupied, which appears to be the biggest distraction. <br />
<br />
If 1 in 5 drivers break the law by texting while driving, what number risk lives by driving legally, but dangerously, on hands-free mobiles?<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Evidence based policy fail?</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-62444416519065536242011-04-03T16:02:00.000+01:002011-04-03T16:02:46.945+01:00The Knowledge by Bike.I was out and about in London all day yesterday, had a wander around Hyde Park and stuck my nose in the <a href="http://www.nhm.ac.uk/visit-us/whats-on/temporary-exhibitions/sexual-nature/index.html">Sexual Nature Exhibit</a> at the <a href="http://www.nhm.ac.uk/index.html">Natural History Museum</a>. I urge you to make use of <a href="http://www.culture.gov.uk/what_we_do/museums_and_galleries/3380.aspx">Britain's free public museums</a> while you (still) can.<br />
<br />
I was not on my bike, but I did see a lot of people about, especially in the park. One individual caught my eye on the road outside my house. The cyclist appeared lost, and was rearranging a map on a handlebar fixing. I asked him whether he was lost and he replied; "No mate, I'm doing <a href="http://www.tfl.gov.uk/businessandpartners/taxisandprivatehire/1412.aspx">The Knowledge</a>."<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Doing The Knowledge, by bike, what a great idea!<br />
<br />
TfL <a href="http://www.tfl.gov.uk/businessandpartners/taxisandprivatehire/8112.aspx">states</a> that:<br />
<blockquote>"Almost all people who apply to become a licensed taxi driver and take the Knowledge of London exam <i>use a scooter</i> to help learn the runs." </blockquote>But why not a bicycle.<br />
<br />
There are <a href="http://www.londoncyclist.co.uk/cycling-london/who-are-the-least-courteous-drivers-in-london/">mixed feelings towards cabbies by cyclists (see comments)</a>. But having cabbies who are truly cycle aware can only be a positive thing. Councils and cycle groups are already giving training to <a href="http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/local/wandsworthnews/8318505.Bus_drivers_get_special_lessons/">bus</a> and <a href="http://www.lcc.org.uk/index.asp?PageID=1253">HGV</a> drivers. The next step is to widen this to more public sector contracted and licensed groups, <a href="http://www.tfl.gov.uk/roadusers/finesandregulations/963.aspx">especially those sharing lanes with cyclists</a>.<br />
<br />
There are also benefits for the learner themselves. Cycling is a cheaper, cleaner and <a href="http://cyclinginfo.co.uk/blog/cycling/death-rates-by-mode-of-transport/">safer </a>mode than scooters or motorbikes. The learner will have better peripheral vision due to not wearing a helmet, and therefore be able to learn the locations better. And finally they will be fitter and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markeaston/2011/02/happiness_work_sleep_and_bicyc.html">happier</a> people for it.Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-30464558440031379982011-04-01T19:22:00.001+01:002011-04-01T19:24:10.423+01:00That explains it...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">My MP does not like the Alternative Vote. In fact she has made "<a href="http://www.emilythornberry.com/cgblog/7/28/The-case-for-first-past-the-post---Article-for-Labourlist">the case for 'first past the post'</a>". Emily Thornberry, the MP for Islington South and Finsbury has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12754592">chosen to go against her party</a>.<br />
<br />
A study reported on recently by the <a href="http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23937196-av-would-have-given-south-east-10-different-mps-says-new-study.do">Evening Standard</a> states that under AV I would have to write my letters of complaint to a <a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Islington_South_and_Finsbury_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29">Ms. Bridget Fox</a>, rather than Ms. Thornberry. This is why my MP dislikes AV: she would have lost her seat.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<a href="http://www.bes2009-10.org/">The British Election Study</a> showed that the LibDems would have been able to choose between a majority coalition with either Labour, or the Conservatives. In fact the Standard seems to have been a bit late with this story: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jul/15/alternative-vote-british-election-study">here it is from the Grauniad in July 2010</a>. Maybe it has come back from the dead in time for the referendum... Beware more zombie stories (I expect<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/01/mobile-network-london-underground-shelved"> this idea </a>to come back to haunt London's commuters)!<br />
<br />
Back to Emily Thornberry.<br />
<br />
I was at an AV debate this week, where, in as many words, Margaret Beckett stated that MPs are selfish. Her example was that MPs with large majorities would not give a few voters to a neighbour in a boundary change to ensure that their party would win in both constituency. They think of themselves over their party.<br />
<br />
Ms. Thornberry is doing the same. As things stand a referendum on AV is bad for Labour. If it passes they may will loose seats, and it will put some old party-members' backs' up. If the public votes "No" then Ed Milliband will look a bit of an idiot for putting the Labour party behind AV.<br />
<br />
My MP may well dislike AV for a number of other reasons. But as far as arguments go “<a href="https://letzterkunstgriff.wordpress.com/2010/11/27/thornberry-appointment-shows-no2av-intends-to-go-negative/">it’s unduly complicated, it’s expensive, it’s unnecessary – and I think it’s important to have a direct relationship with your constituents</a>” doesn't really cut it. <a href="http://www.yestofairervotes.org/pages/av-myths">It is simple, reasonably cheap</a> and <a href="http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/referendum_2011.aspx">the referendum</a> is there to find out whether it is necessary.<br />
<br />
Personally <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/av-just-because.html">I want a "Yes" vote</a>. However my MP arguing in favour of a "No" vote is not just bad because I disagree with her, but because she is damaging her party in the process, and being frankly, selfish.<br />
<br />
Ms. Thornberry's selfishness may well be unfounded. The study took data from post election surveys, from an election fought under first-past-the-post. I reckon that elections fought under AV will be fought differently, and that opinions taken after an FPTP election campaign are probably not transferable.<br />
<br />
My MP's selfish fears about AV may well be unfounded, but it is unlikely she would jump the "No" ship at this stage. I just hope her actions don't scupper the Labour ship.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-91388070123477021082011-03-17T11:17:00.002+00:002011-03-17T11:18:23.841+00:00Dissent over Student Visas<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">The <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/homeaffairscom">Home Affairs Select Committee</a> (HASC) have called on the Coalition Government to stop trying to reduce the number of student visas. <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/home-affairs-committee/news/110317-student-visas-release/">Their report</a>, published today, criticises <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-12764476">many aspects</a> of government proposals. They highlight the planned crackdowns on pre-degree programmes and language requirements which <a href="http://aroomwithmyviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/now-uk-border-agency-has-begun-and.html">I have highlighted before</a>.<br />
<br />
The reports I have personally heard and seen (on the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-12764476">BBC Website</a>, BBC Radio4, and in The Metro) quote <a href="http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/keith_vaz/leicester_east">Keith Vaz</a>, the Chair of the Committee and a Labour MP. What the reports fail to mention is the <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/home-affairs-committee/membership/">membership</a> of this Committee (besides the BBC's use of "cross-party" in their strap-line).<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
The HASC has 11 members. Of these 5 are Labour members and 5 are Conservatives. The other member is a LibDem. This puts the Coalition parties in the majority. However, the condemning report has still been published.<br />
<br />
There is one noticeable pander to Immigration Minister Damien Green's ideas; the report "supports the Government’s intention to crack down on bogus colleges and bogus students." Although I expect this is as much as populist statement as it is a party political one.<br />
<br />
It appears that there is dissent among Conservative back benchers. Some of them the new guard who won seats in the 2010 General Election including: <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/biographies/nicola-blackwood/62819">Nicola Blackwood</a>, who defeated LibDem Dr Evan Harris; <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/biographies/michael-ellis/62852">Micheal Ellis</a> and <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/biographies/lorraine-fullbrook/35444">Lorraine Fullbrook</a>, who both won back seats held by Labour since 1997.<br />
<br />
Hopefully the Government will take note of this report, and the Committee's membership. If they don't, and the proposals go to Parliament unchanged, I expect to see some revolting Conservatives.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-39849079646849739542011-03-04T23:47:00.002+00:002011-03-04T23:54:32.634+00:00ie6: The Numbers Game<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">Microsoft has <a href="http://ie6countdown.com/index.html">officially announced</a> that it is going to kill off ie6. This is made out to be a big thing, but it is really too little too late.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Firstly MS has got it's numbers wrong. Their official countdown claims that 12.0% of the world was using Internet Explorer 6 (in Feb 2011). Their stats are from <a href="http://www.netapplications.com/Default.aspx">Net Applications</a>, and not linked directly from the MS created site.<br />
<br />
In fact the real ie6 usage is more like 4% with the <a href="http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php">w3Counter</a>, <a href="http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_explorer.asp">w3Schools</a> and <a href="http://gs.statcounter.com/#browser_version-ww-monthly-201002-201102">statcounter</a> all giving figures around this level. It may of course be that these counters have not used data including non-english websites (China and India both have high ie6 usage according to MS). In the case of w3Schools only visits to their website was counted; however, in the case of statcounter hits from over 3 million websites were collated, with <a href="http://gs.statcounter.com/faq#sample-size">395 million hits from China alone</a>.<br />
<br />
A possible reason for this discrepancy could be that MS has only counted ie users (who make up around 40 to 45% of all internet users). In this case 4% of total users would be about 10% of ie users, meaning the 12% figure may have a basis in fact. Without more data and an understanding of how Net Applications' data were collected I simply cannot tell, but I hope that MS did not just ignore 55% of the World's internet users.<br />
<br />
So, MS wants to cut ie6 usage from 12% to 1%. If the figure is in fact 4% over half their work is already done.<br />
<br />
There are further problems with this exercise. The website suggests ie8 as a suitable alternative. It is not, especially with the introduction of <a href="http://www.findmebyip.com/litmus/">CSS</a> and <a href="http://html5test.com/results.html">HTML5</a> into webpages now and in the near future.<br />
<br />
Microsoft needs to wake up to the fact that there are other, better browsers out there (without the <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8524019.stm">EU forcing it to</a>).<br />
<br />
Better browsers include: <a href="http://www.google.com/chrome">Chrome</a>, <a href="https://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/">Firefox</a>, <a href="http://sourceforge.net/projects/iw4win/">Iceweasel</a>, <a href="http://www.opera.com/">Opera</a>, <a href="http://www.konqueror.org/">Konqueror</a>, <a href="http://www.apple.com/safari/">Safari</a>, <a href="http://www.chromium.org/Home">Chromium</a>, and <a href="https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/List_of_web_browsers">many more</a>.<br />
<br />
One good thing may come of this. The UK goverment may <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/pda/2010/jul/30/internet-explorer-6-uk-government">finally</a> move away from ie6 after <a href="http://www.hmg.gov.uk/epetition-responses/petition-view.aspx?epref=ie6upgrade">years of protest</a>.<br />
<br />
Thanks to <a href="http://www.cunningtitle.com/">Rob</a> for alerting me to this story.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7890003642018602515.post-84989490812943935002011-02-18T21:22:00.000+00:002011-02-18T21:22:25.484+00:00AV. Just because...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">On May 5th 2011 the UK will go to the polls, some for local elections, some to elect their devolved administrations and all to decide the fate of the electoral system. The referendum, on whether to change the voting system from First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) to the Alternative-Vote (AV), <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12485084">finally passed through the legislative process</a> after much stalling from Labour and Conservative peers.<br />
<br />
Personally I have already decided how to vote, and am well within the "<a href="http://www.yestofairervotes.org/content/">Yes</a>" camp. (There is also a "<a href="http://www.no2av.org/">No</a>" camp in case you were unaware.) This is partly to do with the myths that are being bandied about by the Nos - for example the statement that <a href="http://www.no2av.org/02/why-our-country-cant-afford-av/">the change will cost £250 million</a> is <a href="http://www.yestofairervotes.org/pages/av-myths">blatantly false</a>. However my underlying reason for saying "Yes" is not to do with any of the arguments presented.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
I am not sure that AV will make my vote count any more than it does at the moment, for that we need true <a href="http://www.politics.co.uk/briefings-guides/issue-briefs/legal-and-constitutional/proportional-representation-$366642.htm">proportional representation</a> (PR). I do support the idea of MPs having to gain the approval of over 50% of their electorate in order to be elected, but am aware that there are situations that can make AV less proportional than FPTP.<br />
<br />
My main reason for calling for a change is that of The Economist in <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/3329802">their verdict</a> on the 2004 USA Presidential Election. Both George Bush and John Kerry were terrible, either in their campaigning or their actions. To people with no prior political convictions there was no obvious choice. However The Economist decided:<br />
<blockquote>It is far from an easy call... but, on balance, our instinct is towards change rather than continuity.</blockquote>They chose Kerry.<br />
<br />
This is the big point about AV. It is not amazing, it is not proportional, it is not what I want, neither is FPTP; but the change is important.<br />
<br />
I believe that changing the voting system in May will increase the likelihood of a referendum on PR in the near future. It will also shake up the political establishment (ever-so slightly).<br />
<br />
On May 5th I will be voting, not for AV over FPTP, but for change over continuity.<br />
<br />
After-all, 'a change is as good as a rest', and I'm really tired of politicians.</div>Henzhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09005619579990657812noreply@blogger.com0